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Tuesday, February 20, 2007


Everybody's talking about the coming attack on Iran

The latest is the BBC. Now I've written before about my thoughts about the subject:
What this is all about is pressure, pressure designed to convince the "moderates" in Iran that they should go the Qaddafi route of accommodation with the West rather than confrontation, subservience rather than independence.
(By the way, lest that be taken the wrong way, I've also written that, despite that belief, we have to act as if such an attack is really being planned).

The question I ask now is this - who's talking? When you have leaks like this one in the BBC, there are basically two possibilities. One, that disgruntled members of the military or CIA or government who are privy to these plans, but who are slightly "saner" and think that such an attack would be disastrous for the West (I doubt they care about the effects on the Iranians), have leaked the information to friendly sources in the media, who are playing a role to try to stop such attacks. The alternative explanation is that these leaks are deliberate leaks by the government itself, designed to use (consciously or not) the media to turn up the pressure on Iran (i.e., the thesis I outlined above).

Which is it? The BBC report is sourced to "diplomatic sources," which doesn't answer the question. I'm sticking with explanation two, but I welcome readers' thoughts on the subject.

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